Monday, March 5, 2012

Expected Value of Pens Season

With Tanger going down and Sid maybe getting better, I've nailed down three scenarios:

1) Sid and Tanger come back, great chance of winning the cup (5%).

2) Tanger or Sid comes back, good chance of winning the cup (20%).

3) Neither are back, solid chance of making conference finals (75%).

Let's attach levels of producing happiness to these outcomes. From 1-10 where 10 is an awesome cup winning experience where Sid spinoramas to Geno for the one-timer to win in OT game 7.

1) 9
2) 7
3) 4

Expected Value: 9(.05) + 7(.2) + 4(.75) = 4.85 oof.

Maybe I'm a snob, but I just want to see my dudes crushing out there. Even if it's just Sid or Tanger out there and we get to the cup, I'd be sad that I wasn't watching all the awesome dudes getting after it out there.

Alright, hopefully this is the end of the pessimist posts for this stuff. Next 2 weeks will be big for the team.

1 comment:

Jonny Gould said...

Sharks winning the Stanley Cup...100% guaranteed.